Italian general election

Taken from "The Guardian"

Hello, and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the Italian election results.

The first exit polls are expected from 2pm GMT (3pm Rome time) – though they have been inaccurate before. Early projections for the Senate are due from 3pm GMT and for the Chamber of Deputies from 5pm GMT.

The election campaign had been expected to be dominated by the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s comeback, but in the event the big story so far has been the success of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo.

Grillo has vowed not to go into government with any of the main parties, leading to fears of political stalemate and economic turmoil if none of the others get a good enough showing to form a viable coalition.

He is also committed to holding a referendum on leaving the euro and implementing a temporary freeze on interest payments on government bonds, which could lead to default. The 64-year-old comic will not enter parliament: he has a 1980 driving conviction for manslaughter after a crash in which passengers were killed, and thus falls foul of his own rule banning MPs with criminal records.

The EU political establishment and financial markets are said to be hoping for a left/centre-left coalition to emerge.

The main parties are:

• People of Freedom, formed by Berlusconi in 2007, which leads a rightwing bloc.

• Italy. Common Good, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, which leads a centre-left grouping.

• Civic Choice, led by the centrist technocrat Mario Monti, the current PM, which leads a centrist bloc.

• Five Star Movement, led by Grillo, the comedian turned anti-establishment insurgent.

The last official poll, two weeks ago, showed Bersani and the left on 35.2%, Berlusconi’s rightwing group with 28.3%, Five Star on 15.9%, and Monti and the centrists on 14.8%.

Here my colleague Tom Kington explains Italy’s political system:

The mechanics of Italy's political system may once again prove to be a recipe for instability. The country's two parliamentary chambers, the lower house and the senate, have equal rights when passing laws, but different electoral systems. The party or coalition that receives the most votes in the lower house gets a bonus number of seats to give it a working majority.

With a narrow lead in the polls, the centre-left coalition, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, currently looks set to capture the bonus, despite a close race with the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.

The senate uses the same bonus rule, but broken down on a regional basis. Bersani is weaker in the large northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto, which return a large number of senators, meaning that he could be forced into an alliance in the Senate with the outgoing technocrat prime minister, Mario Monti. But that depends on Monti achieving the 8% minimum vote needed to win Senate seats in the regions, something now in doubt given his declining appeal.

Even if Monti and Bersani can put their senators together to form a majority, Berlusconi and Grillo may steal enough votes to make their coalition too fragile to last, making more elections a distinct possibility.